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Lunes Diciembre 09, 2019

Descripción:

Conflict, Educational Attainment and Structural Transformation: La Violencia in Colombia

 

We examine the long-term impact of violence on educational attainment, with evidence from Colombia's La Violencia. Individuals exposed to violence during, and especially before, their schooling years experience a significant and economically meaningful decrease in years of schooling. This impact has consequences beyond human capital accumulation: exposed cohorts engage in activities with less human capital content. Violence thus influenced aggregate development - particularly the process of structural transformation, in which some sectors gain prominence as income increases. The effects result not so much from the direct destruction of physical infrastructure, but from a effected households' responses to the hardships of conflict.

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Páginas: 
53
Fecha de publicación: 
Noviembre 06, 2015
ISBN: 
1657-7191
Descripción:

La Encuesta Longitudinal Colombiana de la Universidad de los Andes tiene por objetivo seguir a lo largo de una década a más de 10 mil hogares en zonas urbanas y rurales en Colombia. Es la primera encuesta longitudinal de esta magnitud en Colombia que permitirá conocer las dinámicas de los hogares, la evolución en el mercado laboral, en el desarrollo de los niños, la vulnerabilidad frente a choques y los mecanismos que los hogares tienen para reaccionar ante ellos, el acceso a los servicios financieros, las dinámicas en la propiedad de la vivienda y la tenencia de tierras y producción en la zona rural, entre otros temas. En 2010 se realizó la primera ronda de la ELCA donde se encuestó a 5,446 hogares urbanos, representativos nacional de la zona urbana y a nivel regional y 4,720 hogares rurales representativos de cuatro microrregiones regiones de Colombia. La segunda ronda se recogió en el primer semestre del 2013 alcanzando una cobertura del 94% de los hogares de seguimiento. Este documento describe la ELCA y provee información sobre la muestra, los instrumentos, el diseño de los contenidos, el operativo de campo y los resultados de cobertura del primer seguimiento.

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Páginas: 
23
Fecha de publicación: 
Diciembre 17, 2014
ISBN: 
1657-7191
Descripción:

The environmental impact of civil conflict: The deforestation effect of paramilitary expansion in Colombia

 

Despite a growing body of literature on how environmental degradation can fuel civil war, the reverse effect, namely that of conflict on environmental outcomes, is relatively understudied. From a theoretical point of view this effect is ambiguous, with some forces pointing to pressures for environmental degradation and some pointing in the opposite direction. Hence, the overall effect of conflict on the environment is an empirical question. We study this relationship in the case of Colombia. We combine a detailed satellite-based longitudinal dataset on forest cover across municipalities over the period 1990-2010 with a comprehensive panel of conflict-related violent actions by paramilitary militias. We first provide evidence that paramilitary activity significantly reduces the share of forest cover in a panel specification that includes municipal and time fixed effects. Then we confirm these findings by taking advantage of a quasi-experiment that provides us with an exogenous source of variation for the expansion of the paramilitary. Using the distance to the region of Urabá, the epicenter of such expansion, we instrument paramilitary activity in each cross-section for which data on forest cover is available. As a falsification exercise, we show that the instrument ceases to be relevant after the paramilitaries largely demobilized following peace negotiations with the government. Further, after the demobilization the deforestation effect of the paramilitaries disappears. We explore a number of potential mechanisms that may explain the conflict-driven deforestation, and show evidence suggesting that paramilitary violence generates large outflows of people in order to secure areas for growing illegal crops, exploit mineral resources, and engage in extensive agriculture. In turn, these activities are associated with deforestation.

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Páginas: 
41
Fecha de publicación: 
Octubre 27, 2014
ISBN: 
1657-7191
Descripción:

We document the existence of a Crime Kuznets Curve in US states since the 1970s. As income levels have risen, crime has followed an inverted U-shaped pattern, first increasing and then dropping. The Crime Kuznets Curve is not explained by income inequality. In fact, we show that during the sample period inequality has risen monotonically with income, ruling out the traditional Kuznets Curve. Our finding is robust to adding a large set of controls that are used in the literature to explain the incidence of crime, as well as to controlling for state and year fixed effects. The Curve is also revealed in nonparametric specifications. The Crime Kuznets Curve exists for property crime and for some categories of violent crime.

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Páginas: 
31
Fecha de publicación: 
Mayo 13, 2014
ISBN: 
1657-7191
Descripción:
This paper studies the effect of strengthening democracy, as captured by an increase in voting rights, on the incidence of violent civil conflict in nineteenth-century Colombia.
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Páginas: 
36
Fecha de publicación: 
Junio 04, 2013
ISBN: 
1657-7191
Descripción:
Free media may not favor political accountability when other democratic institutions are weak, and may even bring undesirable unintended consequences. We propose a simple model in which politicians running for office may engage in coercion to obtain votes. A media scandal that exposes these candidates increases their coercion effort to offset the negative popularity shock. This may result in the tainted politicians actually increasing their vote share. We provide empirical evidence from one recent episode in the political history of Colombia, the `parapolitics' scandal featuring politicians colluding with illegal armed paramilitary groups to obtain votes. We show that colluding candidates not only get more votes than their clean competitors, but also concentrate them in areas where coercion is more likely (namely, areas with more paramilitary presence, less state presence, and more judicial ineficiency). Harder to reconcile with other explanations and as a direct test of the effects of media exposure, we compare tainted candidates exposed before elections to those exposed after. We find that those exposed before elections get as many votes as those exposed once elected, but their electoral support is more strongly concentrated in places where coercion is more likely. Our results highlight the complementarity between different dimensions of democratic institutions.
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Páginas: 
57
Fecha de publicación: 
Junio 04, 2013
ISBN: 
1657-7191